Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.692781 13.676346 15.850222 18.403589 21.314350 24.522775 28.320483
2024-10-20 8.412256 11.046003 14.228420 18.329405 23.443408 29.577431 37.455245
2024-10-27 6.388023 9.281170 13.084168 18.383578 25.500245 34.639881 47.162699
2024-11-03 5.441583 8.614858 13.091157 19.743491 29.228145 42.088246 60.624585
2024-11-10 4.622364 7.910790 12.852910 20.627258 32.304220 48.891479 73.849340
2024-11-17 3.962619 7.285857 12.577102 21.336928 35.115635 55.502942 87.341745
2024-11-24 3.262856 6.438805 11.788765 21.092748 36.384622 59.896011 97.910369
2024-12-01 2.618944 5.545688 10.758037 20.268319 36.574837 62.580218 106.028452
2024-12-08 2.135152 4.839010 9.916987 19.610660 36.899822 65.418361 114.516245
2024-12-15 1.844777 4.445852 9.568862 19.748321 38.542462 70.466024 126.867096
2024-12-22 1.553710 3.987189 9.016895 19.420648 39.299655 74.055359 137.034685
2024-12-29 1.437848 3.886651 9.152204 20.405048 42.508939 82.056919 155.176199
2025-01-05 1.261378 3.619311 8.923111 20.682891 44.508258 88.244176 170.924560
2025-01-12 1.099215 3.351560 8.653431 20.849471 46.327329 94.291518 186.957526
2025-01-19 0.959816 3.108432 8.397379 21.007611 48.141764 100.474995 203.699518
2025-01-26 0.922972 3.133706 8.767932 22.577485 52.972286 112.682323 232.318478
2025-02-02 0.856365 3.059113 8.885100 23.588561 56.730766 123.103584 258.280914
2025-02-09 0.785938 2.955922 8.913370 24.393970 60.121249 133.041859 283.956386
2025-02-16 0.676627 2.702878 8.511705 24.121549 61.131336 138.314804 300.974392
2025-02-23 0.558809 2.386429 7.880625 23.193886 60.571370 140.342378 311.736882
2025-03-02 0.466292 2.126903 7.355823 22.453087 60.344700 143.011079 323.910921
2025-03-09 0.414145 1.998116 7.184689 22.608391 62.225869 150.241700 345.771542
2025-03-16 0.354872 1.822102 6.837358 22.239074 62.803328 154.701137 362.177401